The history and practice of scenario planning in organisations is often traced back to the Royal Dutch/Shell planning group, where it was used as a successful tool for long-range corporate planning in the early 1970s. In the face of accelerated change and genuine uncertainties in the business environment, scenario planning has come to occupy a key position within strategic management, so much so that it is now part and parcel of many corporate foresight exercises.
The current interest in scenario planning results from two key drivers. First, organisations want to understand the potential implications of new business models and emerging technological trajectories, and to overcome the limits on their ability to prepare for the unknown future. Second, empirical evidence suggests scenario planning could lead to desirable organisational outcomes such as adaptive learning, ambidexterity, innovation and improved decision making. Increasingly aware of the benefits of scenario planning, a growing number of organisations support and conduct scenario planning exercises periodically, with calls on managers to integrate them into their organisational processes.
The purpose of this special issue, therefore, is to explore scenario planning for the creation and capture of sustainable value relevant to competitiveness.
Conceptual, qualitative and quantitative contributions are invited. Cross-disciplinary contributions and those from multiple theoretical perspectives are particularly welcome.
Suitable topics include, but are not limited to, the following:
- Relationship between scenario planning and organisational foresight
- Break scenario planning with positivistic science without falling into postmodern nihilism
- Contribution of scenario planning to the exploration and exploitation of value relevant to competitive advantage
- The impact of scenario planning on organisational performance
- How scenario planning may lead to knowledge creation/innovation
- Obstacles to organising successful scenario planning exercises
- The role of scenario planning in corporate foresight exercises
- Processual approaches to scenario planning in high velocity environments
Submission of manuscripts: 31 July, 2015