A theoretical model of the spread of viral transmission is reported in the International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation. The paper discusses Zika virus transmission but could have implications for understanding the spread of other viruses, with particular pertinence to the development of a pandemic disease.
Maghnia Hamou Maamar, Leila Bouzid, and Omar Belhamiti of the University of Mostaganem, in Algeria, and Fethi Bin Muhammad Belgacem of the Department of Mathematics, in the Faculty of Basic Education, at PAAET, in Al-Ardhiya, Kuwait, have created a compartmental model for human and mosquito transmission of Zika virus. They have also investigated how a non-human primate, a monkey, may have acted as a disease reservoir. Such reservoirs can act as routes from the native host in which a disease may be endemic or asymptomatic into a human or other population where it becomes a serious health problem.
The mathematical model looks at incidence, spread, and transmission and shows how different parameters will lead to the development of the disease to the endemic situation. The implications are there for how a pandemic disease might arise, particularly when a non-human vector amplifies the spread of the pathogen.
Maamar, M.H., Bouzid, L., Belhamiti, O. and Belgacem, F.B.M. (2020) ‘Stability and numerical study of theoretical model of Zika virus transmission’, Int. J. Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp.141–166
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