A digital scheduling framework combining machine learning, optimisation and blockchain technology could allow carbon emissions to be reduced at lower cost in regional energy systems, according to research in the International Journal of Environment and Pollution. The system cut the marginal emission-reduction cost, the additional expense of removing one more tonne of carbon, by about 12 per cent when the carbon quota was restricted to half the system’s baseline emissions.
The new framework addresses a problem facing those managing increasingly complex regional energy networks, where electricity, heat and other sources must be coordinated while emissions are controlled. The problem being that the differences in data quality can make it difficult to assign emissions to specific sources and to then respond to rapidly changing demand.
The researchers used a machine-learning algorithm known as extreme gradient boosting, XGBoost, to identify complex relationships in the data and so forecast daily energy loads using historical consumption, electricity prices, weather, and industrial activity. The forecasts continuously update a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, an optimisation method that selects decisions subject to constraints such as energy balances and carbon limits.
In addition, the framework records encrypted emissions data using a blockchain platform. Blockchain technology is perhaps more familiar as a cryptocurrency system, but it is essentially an immutable digital ledger that can be used to record data and information exchanges of all kinds. The blockchain thus provides a traceable record of emissions and assigns responsibility across the energy network.
The researchers suggest that integrating forecasting, scheduling, and verification into a single system could provide regional energy systems with a more responsive mechanism for managing emissions as carbon constraints tighten.
Liu, W. and Ma, W. (2026) ‘Marginal emission reduction costs of regional energy system transformation enabled by digital economy from the perspective of supply chain’, Int. J. Environment and Pollution, Vol. 76, No. 8, pp.1–26.
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