Research pick: Rethinking risky routes for regulated materials - "Simultaneous consideration of the accident and terror risks for hazardous materials transportation"

Research in the International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics has looked at the problems of transporting hazardous materials where accidental and deliberate threats might cause serious problems, particularly in terms of potential terrorist activity.

Risk models for hazardous materials, hazmat, transport have usually focused on accidents caused by mechanical failure, human error, or environmental conditions. These models have been used to decide which routes transportation, whether road, rail, or marine, should take. The aim being to minimise the risks to life and the environment associated with accidental spills, fires, or explosions. However, since the early 2000s, intentional attacks on hazmat-transport has been of growing concern. Such terrorist activity has the potential for mass casualties, widespread environmental harm, and severe economic disruption.

The method discussed in IJSTL takes us a step further on by acknowledging the ubiquitous threat of terrorism and incorporating worst-case scenarios into the risk assessment from the first stages of planning onwards. The strategy takes into account tactical factors such as whether vehicles travel alone or in convoys, the spacing between them, the types of roads used, how quickly vehicles can travel under attack, and the likely weapons or tactics an attacker might employ.

The researchers explain that the model can be built into a Geographic Information System (GIS), a mapping tool that allows complex layers of data, such as road conditions, population density, and known security risks, to be analysed together. This level of information integration should allow route planners to identify transport routes that strike a balance between minimising for both accident and terrorism, rather than simply accounting for only one.

The team undertook a case study in one particularly troubled part of the world and demonstrated that their analysis would lead to different routing decisions. Routes that were considered optimal under traditional accident-only models were often very different when terrorism risk was taken into account. The terrorism-aware model favoured wider, well-maintained, multi-lane roads that allow higher travel speeds, reducing the time vehicles spend in potentially dangerous areas.

Yilmaz, Z. and Verter, V. (2025) ‘Simultaneous consideration of the accident and terror risks for hazardous materials transportation’, Int. J. Shipping and Transport Logistics, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp.1–38.